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TX-71, Spicewood, TX, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$54,364
$4,530/mo · at 51% occupancy & $395/night
-$320,463
-$26,705/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
-2.1%
Cash-on-cash
-30.4%
DSCR
-0.35
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$54,364/yr
Market avg: $54,364/yr · 51% occ · $395 ADR
Financing
$238,245/yr
Operating costs
$136,582/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$145–$745
Median $396
25%–92%
Median 50%
$28.7K–$99.6K
Median $49.3K
144–365
Median 300
This property · $54.4K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
299 days available · 184 days booked ·
238 days available · 208 days booked ·
325 days available · 192 days booked ·
332 days available · 255 days booked ·
303 days available · 160 days booked ·
307 days available · 126 days booked ·
269 days available · 205 days booked ·
308 days available · 126 days booked ·
352 days available · 229 days booked ·
336 days available · 107 days booked ·
334 days available · 276 days booked ·
280 days available · 112 days booked ·
260 days available · 174 days booked ·
330 days available · 161 days booked ·
310 days available · 143 days booked ·
337 days available · 139 days booked ·
144 days available · 114 days booked ·
246 days available · 130 days booked ·
242 days available · 168 days booked ·
363 days available · 202 days booked ·
239 days available · 132 days booked ·
301 days available · 121 days booked ·
314 days available · 133 days booked ·
320 days available · 121 days booked ·
365 days available · 198 days booked ·
257 days available · 113 days booked ·
232 days available · 161 days booked ·
299 days available · 136 days booked ·
308 days available · 102 days booked ·
324 days available · 83 days booked ·
204 days available · 144 days booked ·
233 days available · 164 days booked ·
267 days available · 91 days booked ·
273 days available · 146 days booked ·
244 days available · 90 days booked ·
210 days available · 139 days booked ·
239 days available · 112 days booked ·
365 days available · 230 days booked ·
209 days available · 124 days booked ·
308 days available · 125 days booked ·
274 days available · 113 days booked ·
257 days available · 131 days booked ·
358 days available · 227 days booked ·
365 days available · 191 days booked ·
321 days available · 104 days booked ·
322 days available · 122 days booked ·
304 days available · 110 days booked ·
260 days available · 129 days booked ·
232 days available · 168 days booked ·
258 days available · 163 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$982.8K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
-0.35
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Spicewood submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$982.8K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $815.7K–$1.1M
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $301.8K–$414.5K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -30.4%, DSCR -0.35, cash flow -$320,463/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $2,984,175 | -32.8% | -0.46 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $3,103,542 | -32.4% | -0.44 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $3,382,065 | -31.7% | -0.41 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $3,660,588 | -31.0% | -0.38 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $3,978,900 | -30.4% | -0.35 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $4,297,212 | -29.9% | -0.32 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $4,575,735 | -29.4% | -0.30 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$34,920/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,530 · peaks at $5,934 in Oct
Annual avg 53% · peaks at 60% in Mar
−$26,705/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$1,153,881
Return on cash:-10.5%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is -0.35 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
-6.2%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
0.6×
total proceeds vs. $1,153,881 invested
Projected value at exit
$5,078,197
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+4.1 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1,025,039 | $198,945 | $43,169 | $1,267,152 |
| Year 2 | $1,057,543 | $407,837 | -$276,479 | $1,188,902 |
| Year 3 | $1,092,398 | $627,174 | -$595,299 | $1,124,274 |
| Year 4 | $1,129,772 | $857,478 | -$913,278 | $1,073,972 |
| Year 5 | $1,169,849 | $1,099,297 | -$1,230,405 | $1,038,740 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Spicewood agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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