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956 Michael Ave, Big Bear, CA, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$42,896
$3,575/mo · at 37% occupancy & $326/night
-$9,069
-$756/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
4.2%
Cash-on-cash
-6%
DSCR
0.70
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$42,896/yr
Market avg: $42,896/yr · 37% occ · $326 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$22,026/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$205–$437
Median $326
22%–81%
Median 38%
$22.8K–$102.8K
Median $39.2K
218–365
Median 314
This property · $42.9K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
343 days available · 237 days booked ·
365 days available · 170 days booked ·
346 days available · 251 days booked ·
317 days available · 172 days booked ·
295 days available · 158 days booked ·
313 days available · 211 days booked ·
365 days available · 138 days booked ·
236 days available · 135 days booked ·
365 days available · 181 days booked ·
283 days available · 154 days booked ·
308 days available · 133 days booked ·
365 days available · 186 days booked ·
287 days available · 130 days booked ·
337 days available · 133 days booked ·
274 days available · 143 days booked ·
296 days available · 155 days booked ·
295 days available · 166 days booked ·
365 days available · 98 days booked ·
270 days available · 119 days booked ·
218 days available · 163 days booked ·
359 days available · 106 days booked ·
364 days available · 128 days booked ·
284 days available · 110 days booked ·
299 days available · 117 days booked ·
365 days available · 99 days booked ·
328 days available · 107 days booked ·
276 days available · 121 days booked ·
307 days available · 106 days booked ·
305 days available · 109 days booked ·
289 days available · 130 days booked ·
333 days available · 116 days booked ·
221 days available · 109 days booked ·
315 days available · 88 days booked ·
263 days available · 123 days booked ·
245 days available · 92 days booked ·
344 days available · 122 days booked ·
360 days available · 101 days booked ·
276 days available · 105 days booked ·
301 days available · 84 days booked ·
298 days available · 112 days booked ·
349 days available · 92 days booked ·
340 days available · 114 days booked ·
301 days available · 82 days booked ·
327 days available · 89 days booked ·
353 days available · 90 days booked ·
339 days available · 76 days booked ·
342 days available · 112 days booked ·
297 days available · 116 days booked ·
343 days available · 85 days booked ·
320 days available · 74 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$348.5K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even is ~30% below the Zestimate, a discount sellers in Big Bear rarely accept. Treat the number as a walk-away line rather than an opening offer.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.70
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Big Bear submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -6.0%, DSCR 0.70, cash flow -$9,069/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | -1.3% | 0.93 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $390,000 | -2.0% | 0.89 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $425,000 | -3.5% | 0.82 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $460,000 | -4.8% | 0.76 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $500,000 | -6.0% | 0.70 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $540,000 | -7.1% | 0.65 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $575,000 | -8.0% | 0.61 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$348,539
~30% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$151,461
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $3,575 · peaks at $5,368 in Jan
Annual avg 41% · peaks at 56% in Aug
−$756/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:11%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.7 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
13.3%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.7×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+6.4 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $36,626 | $190,435 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $28,200 | $212,344 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $20,428 | $236,514 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $13,318 | $263,042 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $6,882 | $292,029 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Big Bear agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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