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6814 E Osborn Rd, Scottsdale, AZ 85251, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$63,574
$5,298/mo · at 62% occupancy & $351/night
-$35,919
-$2,993/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
2.3%
Cash-on-cash
-13%
DSCR
0.39
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$63,574/yr
Market avg: $63,574/yr · 62% occ · $351 ADR
Financing
$59,003/yr
Operating costs
$40,490/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$214–$519
Median $350
38%–94%
Median 63%
$30.9K–$110.7K
Median $63.3K
212–365
Median 291
This property · $63.6K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
327 days available · 222 days booked ·
330 days available · 220 days booked ·
302 days available · 215 days booked ·
365 days available · 183 days booked ·
307 days available · 175 days booked ·
318 days available · 213 days booked ·
257 days available · 183 days booked ·
262 days available · 196 days booked ·
281 days available · 225 days booked ·
308 days available · 153 days booked ·
340 days available · 244 days booked ·
365 days available · 238 days booked ·
281 days available · 158 days booked ·
323 days available · 257 days booked ·
252 days available · 155 days booked ·
239 days available · 168 days booked ·
294 days available · 169 days booked ·
273 days available · 193 days booked ·
287 days available · 143 days booked ·
345 days available · 208 days booked ·
365 days available · 221 days booked ·
287 days available · 139 days booked ·
312 days available · 174 days booked ·
300 days available · 172 days booked ·
288 days available · 167 days booked ·
307 days available · 180 days booked ·
321 days available · 237 days booked ·
336 days available · 138 days booked ·
258 days available · 130 days booked ·
257 days available · 131 days booked ·
223 days available · 170 days booked ·
315 days available · 162 days booked ·
304 days available · 114 days booked ·
347 days available · 217 days booked ·
314 days available · 213 days booked ·
290 days available · 147 days booked ·
235 days available · 219 days booked ·
264 days available · 90 days booked ·
293 days available · 167 days booked ·
248 days available · 156 days booked ·
232 days available · 163 days booked ·
291 days available · 125 days booked ·
242 days available · 149 days booked ·
214 days available · 159 days booked ·
274 days available · 107 days booked ·
212 days available · 161 days booked ·
266 days available · 193 days booked ·
324 days available · 175 days booked ·
264 days available · 123 days booked ·
258 days available · 128 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$243.4K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.39
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Scottsdale submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$243.4K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $202.0K–$277.5K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $74.7K–$102.7K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -13.0%, DSCR 0.39, cash flow -$35,919/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $739,050 | -10.0% | 0.52 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $768,612 | -10.4% | 0.50 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $837,590 | -11.4% | 0.46 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $906,568 | -12.2% | 0.43 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $985,400 | -13.0% | 0.39 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $1,064,232 | -13.7% | 0.36 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $1,133,210 | -14.2% | 0.34 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$8,648/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $5,298 · peaks at $9,035 in Feb
Annual avg 61% · peaks at 79% in Mar
−$2,993/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$285,766
Return on cash:4.7%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.39 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
7.4%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.4×
total proceeds vs. $285,766 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,257,648
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.7 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $253,857 | $49,270 | $54,137 | $357,264 |
| Year 2 | $261,907 | $101,004 | $19,171 | $382,082 |
| Year 3 | $270,539 | $155,324 | -$14,826 | $411,037 |
| Year 4 | $279,795 | $212,360 | -$47,841 | $444,314 |
| Year 5 | $289,720 | $272,248 | -$79,859 | $482,109 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Scottsdale agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.