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60467 Natoma Trail, Joshua Tree, CA, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$53,026
$4,419/mo · at 48% occupancy & $380/night
-$11,434
-$953/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
4.1%
Cash-on-cash
-6.3%
DSCR
0.69
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$53,026/yr
Market avg: $53,026/yr · 48% occ · $380 ADR
Financing
$37,184/yr
Operating costs
$27,276/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$173–$673
Median $379
22%–91%
Median 48%
$27.3K–$97.6K
Median $49.7K
204–365
Median 294
This property · $53.0K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
349 days available · 147 days booked ·
365 days available · 233 days booked ·
262 days available · 149 days booked ·
249 days available · 205 days booked ·
238 days available · 162 days booked ·
271 days available · 140 days booked ·
273 days available · 141 days booked ·
340 days available · 135 days booked ·
344 days available · 153 days booked ·
294 days available · 137 days booked ·
316 days available · 153 days booked ·
300 days available · 185 days booked ·
247 days available · 173 days booked ·
277 days available · 109 days booked ·
274 days available · 196 days booked ·
253 days available · 156 days booked ·
260 days available · 123 days booked ·
329 days available · 103 days booked ·
204 days available · 140 days booked ·
320 days available · 137 days booked ·
284 days available · 167 days booked ·
310 days available · 151 days booked ·
305 days available · 149 days booked ·
279 days available · 136 days booked ·
282 days available · 213 days booked ·
322 days available · 201 days booked ·
324 days available · 190 days booked ·
307 days available · 129 days booked ·
280 days available · 127 days booked ·
329 days available · 211 days booked ·
361 days available · 262 days booked ·
352 days available · 212 days booked ·
323 days available · 110 days booked ·
262 days available · 110 days booked ·
308 days available · 103 days booked ·
310 days available · 122 days booked ·
313 days available · 102 days booked ·
258 days available · 142 days booked ·
268 days available · 95 days booked ·
293 days available · 110 days booked ·
335 days available · 194 days booked ·
295 days available · 98 days booked ·
237 days available · 93 days booked ·
291 days available · 129 days booked ·
312 days available · 115 days booked ·
365 days available · 142 days booked ·
243 days available · 85 days booked ·
250 days available · 81 days booked ·
253 days available · 84 days booked ·
244 days available · 106 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$153.4K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$430.0K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even is ~31% below the Zestimate, a discount sellers in Joshua Tree rarely accept. Treat the number as a walk-away line rather than an opening offer.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.69
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Joshua Tree submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$153.4K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $127.3K–$174.9K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $47.1K–$64.7K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -6.3%, DSCR 0.69, cash flow -$11,434/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $465,750 | -1.5% | 0.92 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $484,380 | -2.2% | 0.89 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $527,850 | -3.7% | 0.81 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $571,320 | -5.0% | 0.75 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $621,000 | -6.3% | 0.69 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $670,680 | -7.4% | 0.64 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $714,150 | -8.3% | 0.60 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$430,049
~31% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$190,951
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$5,450/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,419 · peaks at $5,209 in Jan
Annual avg 50% · peaks at 62% in Mar
−$953/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$180,090
Return on cash:10.9%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.69 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
13.2%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.7×
total proceeds vs. $180,090 invested
Projected value at exit
$792,571
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+6.4 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $159,981 | $31,050 | $45,319 | $236,350 |
| Year 2 | $165,054 | $63,653 | $34,681 | $263,387 |
| Year 3 | $170,494 | $97,885 | $24,849 | $293,229 |
| Year 4 | $176,327 | $133,829 | $15,837 | $325,994 |
| Year 5 | $182,582 | $171,571 | $7,657 | $361,810 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Joshua Tree agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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