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463 Pioneer Rd, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$49,047
$4,087/mo · at 35% occupancy & $403/night
-$3,718
-$310/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
5.2%
Cash-on-cash
-2.5%
DSCR
0.88
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$49,047/yr
Market avg: $49,047/yr · 35% occ · $403 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$22,826/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 34 properties
$240–$553
Median $404
17%–71%
Median 36%
$27.8K–$85.6K
Median $45.6K
245–366
Median 317
This property · $49.0K
Comparable properties (34)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
366 days available · 183 days booked ·
365 days available · 185 days booked ·
281 days available · 146 days booked ·
298 days available · 149 days booked ·
365 days available · 193 days booked ·
365 days available · 239 days booked ·
346 days available · 142 days booked ·
304 days available · 104 days booked ·
300 days available · 143 days booked ·
308 days available · 121 days booked ·
365 days available · 174 days booked ·
365 days available · 145 days booked ·
311 days available · 89 days booked ·
296 days available · 98 days booked ·
326 days available · 105 days booked ·
356 days available · 110 days booked ·
245 days available · 130 days booked ·
298 days available · 125 days booked ·
315 days available · 108 days booked ·
365 days available · 157 days booked ·
305 days available · 119 days booked ·
329 days available · 128 days booked ·
296 days available · 138 days booked ·
342 days available · 84 days booked ·
342 days available · 81 days booked ·
278 days available · 98 days booked ·
354 days available · 116 days booked ·
314 days available · 65 days booked ·
340 days available · 71 days booked ·
324 days available · 67 days booked ·
314 days available · 79 days booked ·
251 days available · 103 days booked ·
318 days available · 109 days booked ·
313 days available · 70 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$437.9K
Break-even purchase price
The deal pencils only if you buy right. At ~12% below the Zestimate the numbers reach break-even — treat that as a negotiation anchor, not a fantasy. Pay asking and the math stops working.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.88
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Lake Arrowhead submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -2.5%, DSCR 0.88, cash flow -$3,718/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | 3.2% | 1.17 | Positive |
| -22% | $390,000 | 2.4% | 1.12 | Positive |
| -15% | $425,000 | 0.6% | 1.03 | Positive |
| -8% | $460,000 | -0.9% | 0.95 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $500,000 | -2.5% | 0.88 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $540,000 | -3.8% | 0.81 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $575,000 | -4.8% | 0.76 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$437,911
~12% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$62,089
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,087 · peaks at $5,450 in Dec
Annual avg 38% · peaks at 49% in Aug
−$310/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:14.7%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.88 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
16.8%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.9×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+6.9 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $41,977 | $195,786 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $38,995 | $223,139 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $36,759 | $252,846 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $35,282 | $285,005 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $34,573 | $319,721 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Lake Arrowhead agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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