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4201 W Luke Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85019, USA
Cash-flow positive, but the margin over debt service is thin.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$47,085
$3,924/mo · at 62% occupancy & $268/night
$2,363
$197/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
6.6%
Cash-on-cash
1.8%
DSCR
1.09
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$47,085/yr
Market avg: $47,085/yr · 62% occ · $268 ADR
Financing
$24,891/yr
Operating costs
$19,831/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 43 properties
$175–$490
Median $267
37%–88%
Median 62%
$24.2K–$98.4K
Median $44.7K
203–365
Median 276
This property · $47.1K
Comparable properties (43)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
365 days available · 266 days booked ·
346 days available · 198 days booked ·
245 days available · 167 days booked ·
270 days available · 180 days booked ·
352 days available · 262 days booked ·
293 days available · 191 days booked ·
265 days available · 160 days booked ·
325 days available · 202 days booked ·
315 days available · 192 days booked ·
298 days available · 205 days booked ·
320 days available · 229 days booked ·
345 days available · 276 days booked ·
307 days available · 159 days booked ·
278 days available · 129 days booked ·
276 days available · 126 days booked ·
307 days available · 167 days booked ·
313 days available · 170 days booked ·
365 days available · 210 days booked ·
203 days available · 119 days booked ·
238 days available · 185 days booked ·
294 days available · 164 days booked ·
251 days available · 165 days booked ·
280 days available · 129 days booked ·
363 days available · 199 days booked ·
290 days available · 189 days booked ·
255 days available · 104 days booked ·
252 days available · 167 days booked ·
266 days available · 197 days booked ·
211 days available · 164 days booked ·
277 days available · 168 days booked ·
249 days available · 104 days booked ·
209 days available · 129 days booked ·
243 days available · 165 days booked ·
365 days available · 134 days booked ·
286 days available · 124 days booked ·
235 days available · 135 days booked ·
276 days available · 162 days booked ·
249 days available · 134 days booked ·
254 days available · 148 days booked ·
271 days available · 116 days booked ·
270 days available · 135 days booked ·
230 days available · 103 days booked ·
242 days available · 110 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$102.7K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$455.2K
Break-even purchase price
The deal already breaks even at or above the Zestimate, so you don't need a discount to make the math work. Buy at asking and the numbers still hold — rare enough in Phoenix to be worth moving on.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.09
DSCR at asking
The property covers its debt service at asking but sits below the 1.20 most lenders want to see, so expect a larger down payment or a rate buy-down to get it financed. There's no margin for a soft season.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$102.7K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $85.2K–$117.1K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $31.5K–$43.3K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +1.8%, DSCR 1.09, cash flow $2,363/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $311,775 | 8.5% | 1.46 | Positive |
| -22% | $324,246 | 7.5% | 1.40 | Positive |
| -15% | $353,345 | 5.4% | 1.29 | Positive |
| -8% | $382,444 | 3.6% | 1.19 | Positive |
| Asking | $415,700 | 1.8% | 1.09 | Positive |
| +8% | $448,956 | 0.3% | 1.01 | At break-even |
| +15% | $478,055 | -1.0% | 0.95 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$455,160
~-9% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$39,460
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$3,648/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $3,924 · peaks at $5,538 in Jan
Annual avg 59% · peaks at 79% in Mar
$197/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$120,553
Return on cash:19.2%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.09 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
21.1%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.2×
total proceeds vs. $120,553 invested
Projected value at exit
$530,550
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.4 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $107,092 | $20,785 | $40,354 | $168,231 |
| Year 2 | $110,488 | $42,609 | $43,423 | $196,520 |
| Year 3 | $114,130 | $65,525 | $47,209 | $226,863 |
| Year 4 | $118,034 | $89,586 | $51,723 | $259,343 |
| Year 5 | $122,221 | $114,850 | $56,975 | $294,047 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Phoenix agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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