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4048 Timber Oak Trl, Fairfax, VA 22033, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$56,405
$4,700/mo · at 56% occupancy & $370/night
-$24,882
-$2,073/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
2.9%
Cash-on-cash
-10.9%
DSCR
0.48
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$56,405/yr
Market avg: $56,405/yr · 56% occ · $370 ADR
Financing
$47,806/yr
Operating costs
$33,481/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 45 properties
$197–$707
Median $371
31%–90%
Median 56%
$27.3K–$107.5K
Median $55.9K
198–365
Median 290
This property · $56.4K
Comparable properties (45)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
350 days available · 199 days booked ·
259 days available · 199 days booked ·
267 days available · 139 days booked ·
295 days available · 152 days booked ·
278 days available · 171 days booked ·
358 days available · 202 days booked ·
343 days available · 185 days booked ·
198 days available · 139 days booked ·
240 days available · 151 days booked ·
310 days available · 184 days booked ·
341 days available · 151 days booked ·
284 days available · 160 days booked ·
327 days available · 186 days booked ·
286 days available · 156 days booked ·
250 days available · 150 days booked ·
283 days available · 166 days booked ·
266 days available · 160 days booked ·
340 days available · 164 days booked ·
247 days available · 154 days booked ·
259 days available · 128 days booked ·
209 days available · 154 days booked ·
343 days available · 187 days booked ·
300 days available · 156 days booked ·
296 days available · 177 days booked ·
242 days available · 154 days booked ·
241 days available · 140 days booked ·
251 days available · 147 days booked ·
336 days available · 109 days booked ·
304 days available · 137 days booked ·
314 days available · 142 days booked ·
365 days available · 155 days booked ·
345 days available · 121 days booked ·
270 days available · 133 days booked ·
313 days available · 177 days booked ·
299 days available · 129 days booked ·
333 days available · 157 days booked ·
306 days available · 149 days booked ·
278 days available · 110 days booked ·
265 days available · 147 days booked ·
282 days available · 98 days booked ·
290 days available · 116 days booked ·
319 days available · 138 days booked ·
268 days available · 126 days booked ·
248 days available · 142 days booked ·
309 days available · 97 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$197.2K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$382.9K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even is ~52% below the Zestimate, a discount sellers in Fairfax rarely accept. Treat the number as a walk-away line rather than an opening offer.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.48
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Fairfax submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$197.2K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $163.7K–$224.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $60.6K–$83.2K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -10.9%, DSCR 0.48, cash flow -$24,882/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $598,800 | -7.4% | 0.64 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $622,752 | -7.9% | 0.61 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $678,640 | -9.0% | 0.56 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $734,528 | -10.0% | 0.52 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $798,400 | -10.9% | 0.48 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $862,272 | -11.8% | 0.44 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $918,160 | -12.4% | 0.42 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$382,856
~52% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$415,544
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$7,007/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,700 · peaks at $5,845 in Dec
Annual avg 53% · peaks at 71% in Jul
−$2,073/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$231,536
Return on cash:6.5%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.48 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
9.1%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.5×
total proceeds vs. $231,536 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,018,983
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.9 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $205,683 | $39,920 | $48,084 | $293,686 |
| Year 2 | $212,205 | $81,836 | $24,048 | $318,089 |
| Year 3 | $219,199 | $125,848 | $871 | $345,917 |
| Year 4 | $226,698 | $172,060 | -$21,435 | $377,324 |
| Year 5 | $234,740 | $220,583 | -$42,856 | $412,468 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Fairfax agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.