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4048 Timber Oak Trl, Fairfax, VA 22033, USA
Covers its debt with margin to spare at the current price.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$69,130
$5,761/mo · at 60% occupancy & $429/night
$13,754
$1,146/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
8.7%
Cash-on-cash
9.2%
DSCR
1.46
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$69,130/yr
Market avg: $69,130/yr · 60% occ · $429 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$25,437/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$274–$671
Median $430
28%–92%
Median 60%
$37.3K–$121.5K
Median $63.0K
140–365
Median 274
This property · $69.1K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
325 days available · 186 days booked ·
307 days available · 234 days booked ·
286 days available · 197 days booked ·
275 days available · 227 days booked ·
353 days available · 207 days booked ·
253 days available · 165 days booked ·
272 days available · 182 days booked ·
237 days available · 167 days booked ·
264 days available · 161 days booked ·
284 days available · 146 days booked ·
274 days available · 176 days booked ·
365 days available · 222 days booked ·
358 days available · 196 days booked ·
233 days available · 156 days booked ·
308 days available · 142 days booked ·
185 days available · 161 days booked ·
177 days available · 125 days booked ·
253 days available · 144 days booked ·
365 days available · 183 days booked ·
180 days available · 116 days booked ·
261 days available · 154 days booked ·
289 days available · 122 days booked ·
185 days available · 145 days booked ·
272 days available · 171 days booked ·
323 days available · 124 days booked ·
140 days available · 124 days booked ·
326 days available · 157 days booked ·
165 days available · 144 days booked ·
333 days available · 111 days booked ·
274 days available · 156 days booked ·
279 days available · 145 days booked ·
265 days available · 133 days booked ·
266 days available · 165 days booked ·
303 days available · 139 days booked ·
247 days available · 151 days booked ·
353 days available · 140 days booked ·
253 days available · 116 days booked ·
154 days available · 138 days booked ·
296 days available · 110 days booked ·
250 days available · 155 days booked ·
288 days available · 170 days booked ·
304 days available · 137 days booked ·
255 days available · 161 days booked ·
275 days available · 141 days booked ·
271 days available · 149 days booked ·
304 days available · 113 days booked ·
256 days available · 109 days booked ·
322 days available · 115 days booked ·
307 days available · 139 days booked ·
217 days available · 115 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.46
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property clears the 1.20 DSCR most lenders require, so it should qualify for DSCR financing and cover its own debt service from day one. This is the buyer this deal is built for.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +9.2%, DSCR 1.46, cash flow $13,754/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | 18.1% | 1.95 | Positive |
| -22% | $390,000 | 16.8% | 1.87 | Positive |
| -15% | $425,000 | 14.0% | 1.72 | Positive |
| -8% | $460,000 | 11.6% | 1.59 | Positive |
| Asking | $500,000 | 9.2% | 1.46 | Positive |
| +8% | $540,000 | 7.1% | 1.35 | Positive |
| +15% | $575,000 | 5.5% | 1.27 | Positive |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $5,761 · peaks at $7,193 in Jul
Annual avg 59% · peaks at 72% in Aug
$1,146/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:26.7%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.46 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
28.4%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.6×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+8.3 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $59,449 | $213,258 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $74,240 | $258,384 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $90,083 | $306,170 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $106,995 | $356,719 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $124,991 | $410,139 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Fairfax agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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