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4048 Timber Oak Trl, Fairfax, VA 22033, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$67,332
$5,611/mo · at 60% occupancy & $422/night
-$15,181
-$1,265/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
4.1%
Cash-on-cash
-6.7%
DSCR
0.68
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$67,332/yr
Market avg: $67,332/yr · 60% occ · $422 ADR
Financing
$47,680/yr
Operating costs
$34,833/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$288–$648
Median $422
35%–93%
Median 60%
$32.5K–$127.1K
Median $59.7K
143–365
Median 278
This property · $67.3K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
344 days available · 198 days booked ·
336 days available · 251 days booked ·
301 days available · 238 days booked ·
276 days available · 196 days booked ·
342 days available · 209 days booked ·
299 days available · 206 days booked ·
257 days available · 165 days booked ·
265 days available · 192 days booked ·
263 days available · 163 days booked ·
271 days available · 165 days booked ·
249 days available · 169 days booked ·
288 days available · 182 days booked ·
296 days available · 163 days booked ·
330 days available · 154 days booked ·
365 days available · 223 days booked ·
210 days available · 186 days booked ·
345 days available · 182 days booked ·
193 days available · 129 days booked ·
342 days available · 157 days booked ·
365 days available · 183 days booked ·
278 days available · 152 days booked ·
239 days available · 127 days booked ·
183 days available · 163 days booked ·
276 days available · 171 days booked ·
282 days available · 115 days booked ·
208 days available · 150 days booked ·
316 days available · 149 days booked ·
291 days available · 162 days booked ·
313 days available · 111 days booked ·
320 days available · 146 days booked ·
143 days available · 126 days booked ·
365 days available · 160 days booked ·
267 days available · 130 days booked ·
302 days available · 151 days booked ·
264 days available · 159 days booked ·
246 days available · 146 days booked ·
280 days available · 117 days booked ·
263 days available · 120 days booked ·
159 days available · 137 days booked ·
308 days available · 142 days booked ·
274 days available · 145 days booked ·
278 days available · 165 days booked ·
293 days available · 108 days booked ·
326 days available · 127 days booked ·
246 days available · 148 days booked ·
206 days available · 112 days booked ·
276 days available · 139 days booked ·
272 days available · 123 days booked ·
245 days available · 144 days booked ·
331 days available · 113 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$196.7K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$542.8K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even is ~32% below the Zestimate, a discount sellers in Fairfax rarely accept. Treat the number as a walk-away line rather than an opening offer.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.68
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Fairfax submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$196.7K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $163.2K–$224.2K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $60.4K–$83.0K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -6.7%, DSCR 0.68, cash flow -$15,181/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $597,225 | -1.9% | 0.91 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $621,114 | -2.6% | 0.87 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $676,855 | -4.1% | 0.80 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $732,596 | -5.4% | 0.74 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $796,300 | -6.7% | 0.68 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $860,004 | -7.8% | 0.63 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $915,745 | -8.7% | 0.59 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$542,762
~32% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$253,538
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$6,988/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $5,611 · peaks at $6,560 in Oct
Annual avg 58% · peaks at 75% in Jul
−$1,265/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$230,927
Return on cash:10.7%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.68 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
13.0%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.7×
total proceeds vs. $230,927 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,016,303
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+6.4 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $205,142 | $39,815 | $57,593 | $302,550 |
| Year 2 | $211,647 | $81,621 | $43,422 | $336,689 |
| Year 3 | $218,622 | $125,517 | $30,276 | $374,415 |
| Year 4 | $226,102 | $171,608 | $18,171 | $415,880 |
| Year 5 | $234,123 | $220,003 | $7,121 | $461,247 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Fairfax agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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