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40218 Esterly Lane, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$41,517
$3,460/mo · at 36% occupancy & $314/night
-$1,890
-$157/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
5.5%
Cash-on-cash
-1.5%
DSCR
0.92
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$41,517/yr
Market avg: $41,517/yr · 36% occ · $314 ADR
Financing
$24,508/yr
Operating costs
$18,899/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 37 properties
$208–$429
Median $314
13%–76%
Median 36%
$20.5K–$92.5K
Median $39.1K
229–365
Median 331
This property · $41.5K
Comparable properties (37)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
298 days available · 209 days booked ·
365 days available · 165 days booked ·
365 days available · 164 days booked ·
324 days available · 173 days booked ·
331 days available · 219 days booked ·
276 days available · 201 days booked ·
273 days available · 188 days booked ·
276 days available · 155 days booked ·
355 days available · 112 days booked ·
365 days available · 138 days booked ·
357 days available · 119 days booked ·
277 days available · 154 days booked ·
338 days available · 134 days booked ·
270 days available · 111 days booked ·
292 days available · 114 days booked ·
357 days available · 132 days booked ·
295 days available · 154 days booked ·
325 days available · 105 days booked ·
345 days available · 88 days booked ·
354 days available · 120 days booked ·
263 days available · 106 days booked ·
356 days available · 118 days booked ·
269 days available · 123 days booked ·
360 days available · 118 days booked ·
319 days available · 110 days booked ·
365 days available · 130 days booked ·
229 days available · 128 days booked ·
344 days available · 122 days booked ·
349 days available · 118 days booked ·
342 days available · 80 days booked ·
365 days available · 95 days booked ·
286 days available · 124 days booked ·
317 days available · 91 days booked ·
298 days available · 93 days booked ·
357 days available · 72 days booked ·
308 days available · 85 days booked ·
342 days available · 58 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$101.1K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$377.7K
Break-even purchase price
The deal pencils only if you buy right. At ~8% below the Zestimate the numbers reach break-even — treat that as a negotiation anchor, not a fantasy. Pay asking and the math stops working.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.92
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Big Bear Lake submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$101.1K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $83.9K–$115.3K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $31.0K–$42.6K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -1.5%, DSCR 0.92, cash flow -$1,890/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $306,975 | 4.2% | 1.23 | Positive |
| -22% | $319,254 | 3.4% | 1.18 | Positive |
| -15% | $347,905 | 1.6% | 1.09 | Positive |
| -8% | $376,556 | 0.1% | 1.00 | At break-even |
| Asking | $409,300 | -1.5% | 0.92 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $442,044 | -2.9% | 0.85 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $470,695 | -3.9% | 0.80 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$377,732
~8% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$31,568
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$3,592/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $3,460 · peaks at $5,217 in Jan
Annual avg 40% · peaks at 52% in Jul
−$157/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$118,697
Return on cash:15.6%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.92 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
17.7%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.0×
total proceeds vs. $118,697 invested
Projected value at exit
$522,382
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.0 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $105,443 | $20,465 | $35,516 | $161,424 |
| Year 2 | $108,787 | $41,953 | $34,249 | $184,989 |
| Year 3 | $112,372 | $64,516 | $33,614 | $210,502 |
| Year 4 | $116,217 | $88,207 | $33,620 | $238,044 |
| Year 5 | $120,340 | $113,082 | $34,278 | $267,699 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Big Bear Lake agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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