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3951 Sequoia St, San Diego, CA 92109
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$118,739
$9,895/mo · at 70% occupancy & $725/night
-$76,017
-$6,335/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
2.1%
Cash-on-cash
-14.5%
DSCR
0.35
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$118,739/yr
Market avg: $118,739/yr · 70% occ · $725 ADR
Financing
$116,102/yr
Operating costs
$78,654/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$450–$991
Median $724
37%–92%
Median 70%
$65.6K–$200.2K
Median $116.0K
169–365
Median 264
This property · $118.7K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
282 days available · 235 days booked ·
306 days available · 219 days booked ·
261 days available · 200 days booked ·
255 days available · 213 days booked ·
263 days available · 208 days booked ·
321 days available · 184 days booked ·
365 days available · 262 days booked ·
264 days available · 181 days booked ·
336 days available · 257 days booked ·
264 days available · 148 days booked ·
330 days available · 226 days booked ·
365 days available · 191 days booked ·
217 days available · 166 days booked ·
282 days available · 176 days booked ·
202 days available · 157 days booked ·
265 days available · 140 days booked ·
278 days available · 156 days booked ·
284 days available · 176 days booked ·
212 days available · 152 days booked ·
225 days available · 198 days booked ·
251 days available · 193 days booked ·
266 days available · 173 days booked ·
207 days available · 141 days booked ·
307 days available · 191 days booked ·
232 days available · 178 days booked ·
285 days available · 183 days booked ·
329 days available · 191 days booked ·
284 days available · 135 days booked ·
211 days available · 158 days booked ·
219 days available · 151 days booked ·
244 days available · 185 days booked ·
273 days available · 162 days booked ·
266 days available · 170 days booked ·
220 days available · 164 days booked ·
236 days available · 160 days booked ·
266 days available · 133 days booked ·
283 days available · 118 days booked ·
264 days available · 126 days booked ·
299 days available · 162 days booked ·
200 days available · 137 days booked ·
247 days available · 116 days booked ·
273 days available · 129 days booked ·
263 days available · 124 days booked ·
216 days available · 137 days booked ·
287 days available · 132 days booked ·
252 days available · 119 days booked ·
215 days available · 172 days booked ·
203 days available · 112 days booked ·
169 days available · 100 days booked ·
195 days available · 107 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$478.9K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.35
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different San Diego submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$478.9K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $397.5K–$546.0K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $147.1K–$202.0K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -14.5%, DSCR 0.35, cash flow -$76,017/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $1,454,250 | -11.8% | 0.46 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $1,512,420 | -12.2% | 0.44 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $1,648,150 | -13.1% | 0.41 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $1,783,880 | -13.8% | 0.38 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $1,939,000 | -14.5% | 0.35 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $2,094,120 | -15.1% | 0.32 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $2,229,850 | -15.6% | 0.30 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$17,017/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $9,895 · peaks at $14,233 in Jul
Annual avg 64% · peaks at 85% in Jul
−$6,335/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$562,310
Return on cash:3.7%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.35 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
6.5%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.4×
total proceeds vs. $562,310 invested
Projected value at exit
$2,474,710
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.6 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $499,522 | $96,950 | $101,188 | $697,661 |
| Year 2 | $515,363 | $198,748 | $26,952 | $741,063 |
| Year 3 | $532,348 | $305,635 | -$45,476 | $792,507 |
| Year 4 | $550,561 | $417,867 | -$116,069 | $852,359 |
| Year 5 | $570,091 | $535,710 | -$184,800 | $921,002 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted San Diego agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.