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3945 Nobel Drive, San Diego, CA, USA
Covers its debt with margin to spare at the current price.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$103,124
$8,594/mo · at 66% occupancy & $639/night
$43,329
$3,611/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
14.7%
Cash-on-cash
28.9%
DSCR
2.45
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$103,124/yr
Market avg: $103,124/yr · 66% occ · $639 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$29,856/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 45 properties
$359–$1,167
Median $639
41%–92%
Median 66%
$53.3K–$231.1K
Median $101.3K
180–365
Median 252
This property · $103.1K
Comparable properties (45)
Cash flow potential High · Appreciation potential Medium
345 days available · 246 days booked ·
338 days available · 254 days booked ·
187 days available · 169 days booked ·
225 days available · 153 days booked ·
255 days available · 208 days booked ·
274 days available · 185 days booked ·
252 days available · 131 days booked ·
236 days available · 166 days booked ·
263 days available · 141 days booked ·
292 days available · 120 days booked ·
198 days available · 151 days booked ·
310 days available · 226 days booked ·
287 days available · 145 days booked ·
273 days available · 245 days booked ·
202 days available · 138 days booked ·
262 days available · 127 days booked ·
297 days available · 217 days booked ·
232 days available · 184 days booked ·
217 days available · 136 days booked ·
283 days available · 166 days booked ·
283 days available · 165 days booked ·
228 days available · 138 days booked ·
276 days available · 172 days booked ·
213 days available · 142 days booked ·
233 days available · 170 days booked ·
365 days available · 172 days booked ·
334 days available · 186 days booked ·
247 days available · 148 days booked ·
221 days available · 119 days booked ·
267 days available · 129 days booked ·
249 days available · 186 days booked ·
213 days available · 163 days booked ·
183 days available · 99 days booked ·
273 days available · 158 days booked ·
180 days available · 113 days booked ·
285 days available · 192 days booked ·
234 days available · 176 days booked ·
251 days available · 118 days booked ·
254 days available · 178 days booked ·
315 days available · 193 days booked ·
226 days available · 134 days booked ·
203 days available · 152 days booked ·
266 days available · 131 days booked ·
214 days available · 145 days booked ·
207 days available · 141 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
2.45
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property clears the 1.20 DSCR most lenders require, so it should qualify for DSCR financing and cover its own debt service from day one. This is the buyer this deal is built for.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +28.9%, DSCR 2.45, cash flow $43,329/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | 43.2% | 3.26 | Positive |
| -22% | $390,000 | 41.1% | 3.14 | Positive |
| -15% | $425,000 | 36.6% | 2.88 | Positive |
| -8% | $460,000 | 32.8% | 2.66 | Positive |
| Asking | $500,000 | 28.9% | 2.45 | Positive |
| +8% | $540,000 | 25.5% | 2.27 | Positive |
| +15% | $575,000 | 22.9% | 2.13 | Positive |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $8,594 · peaks at $11,495 in Mar
Annual avg 64% · peaks at 78% in Mar
$3,611/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:47.1%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 2.45 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
48.7%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
3.6×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+10.6 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $89,024 | $242,833 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $133,900 | $318,044 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $180,346 | $396,432 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $228,385 | $478,109 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $278,042 | $563,190 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted San Diego agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.