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3853 8th Ave, San Diego, CA 92103, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$69,033
$5,753/mo · at 61% occupancy & $386/night
-$47,234
-$3,936/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
1.9%
Cash-on-cash
-14.7%
DSCR
0.32
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$69,033/yr
Market avg: $69,033/yr · 61% occ · $386 ADR
Financing
$69,416/yr
Operating costs
$46,852/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$245–$643
Median $385
40%–90%
Median 62%
$35.9K–$145.8K
Median $64.8K
205–365
Median 282
This property · $69.0K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
283 days available · 245 days booked ·
332 days available · 285 days booked ·
365 days available · 292 days booked ·
302 days available · 205 days booked ·
313 days available · 166 days booked ·
276 days available · 173 days booked ·
278 days available · 188 days booked ·
246 days available · 183 days booked ·
256 days available · 150 days booked ·
257 days available · 204 days booked ·
264 days available · 171 days booked ·
339 days available · 234 days booked ·
320 days available · 173 days booked ·
331 days available · 218 days booked ·
262 days available · 156 days booked ·
284 days available · 176 days booked ·
267 days available · 160 days booked ·
288 days available · 179 days booked ·
339 days available · 172 days booked ·
336 days available · 171 days booked ·
267 days available · 129 days booked ·
283 days available · 177 days booked ·
286 days available · 206 days booked ·
365 days available · 156 days booked ·
276 days available · 208 days booked ·
355 days available · 152 days booked ·
255 days available · 181 days booked ·
295 days available · 173 days booked ·
254 days available · 169 days booked ·
309 days available · 149 days booked ·
345 days available · 182 days booked ·
224 days available · 150 days booked ·
238 days available · 156 days booked ·
330 days available · 219 days booked ·
307 days available · 154 days booked ·
279 days available · 160 days booked ·
219 days available · 162 days booked ·
319 days available · 175 days booked ·
209 days available · 182 days booked ·
217 days available · 127 days booked ·
229 days available · 135 days booked ·
255 days available · 172 days booked ·
266 days available · 145 days booked ·
289 days available · 135 days booked ·
205 days available · 176 days booked ·
283 days available · 149 days booked ·
292 days available · 148 days booked ·
264 days available · 153 days booked ·
222 days available · 115 days booked ·
281 days available · 119 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$286.3K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.32
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different San Diego submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$286.3K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $237.7K–$326.4K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $87.9K–$120.8K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -14.7%, DSCR 0.32, cash flow -$47,234/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $869,475 | -12.1% | 0.43 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $904,254 | -12.5% | 0.41 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $985,405 | -13.3% | 0.38 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $1,066,556 | -14.0% | 0.35 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $1,159,300 | -14.7% | 0.32 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $1,252,044 | -15.3% | 0.30 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $1,333,195 | -15.7% | 0.28 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$10,174/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $5,753 · peaks at $7,025 in Mar
Annual avg 62% · peaks at 73% in Mar
−$3,936/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$336,197
Return on cash:3.2%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.32 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
6.1%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.3×
total proceeds vs. $336,197 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,479,593
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.6 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $298,657 | $57,965 | $58,714 | $415,337 |
| Year 2 | $308,128 | $118,828 | $12,516 | $439,472 |
| Year 3 | $318,283 | $182,735 | -$32,632 | $468,386 |
| Year 4 | $329,173 | $249,836 | -$76,712 | $502,297 |
| Year 5 | $340,849 | $320,293 | -$119,710 | $541,432 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted San Diego agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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