Airbnb Investment Analysis: 3457 Lucas Hollow Rd, Stanley, VA 22851

Strong · financed

Covers its debt with margin to spare at the current price.

3457 Lucas Hollow Rd

Stanley, VA 22851

3bd · 1ba · 8 guests

Purchase price

Zestimate® $401,000

Est. monthly payment$2,001/mo

Vs 2 comps nearby#2 of 3

$67.5K$76.3K

Connect with a local STR agent

Investment potential

Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change

Projected annual revenue

$71,918

$5,993/mo · at 87% occupancy & $249/night

Cash-flow positive

$22,933

$1,911/mo after costs & mortgage

Cap rate

11.7%

Cash-on-cash

18.5%

DSCR

1.96

Confidence

47%

Your assumptions

Revenue

$71,918/yr

Market avg: $71,918/yr · 87% occ · $249 ADR

Occupancy

mkt

Avg daily rate

mkt

Days available

Financing

$24,011/yr

Down payment

Interest rate

Mortgage term

Operating costs

$24,974/yr

Property management

Airbnb fee

Property tax

Insurance

Utilities

Market Context

How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.

Comparable set · 2 properties

Daily rate

$239–$259

Median $249

Occupancy

75%–98%

Median 87%

Annual revenue

$67.5K–$76.3K

Median $71.9K

Days available

263–334

Median 299

Revenue floor · $67.5KTop performer · $76.3K

This property · $71.9K

Comparable properties (2)

Cash flow potential High · Appreciation potential Medium

RevenueOccupancyDaily rate

Shenandoah River access Hot Tub Mountains ViewTop performer

263 days available · 258 days booked ·

Annual revenue

$76,334

Occupancy

98%

Daily rate

$239

River front, Inner tubes, SNP, Luray Caverns

334 days available · 251 days booked ·

Annual revenue

$67,503

Occupancy

75%

Daily rate

$259

Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.

Who this property is for

Three ways this deal works — and who each one fits

The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.

Best fit

1031 / high-equity buyer

~$99.0K

Year-1 tax shield

Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.

Best fit

DSCR cash-flow buyer

1.96

DSCR at asking

At asking price the property clears the 1.20 DSCR most lenders require, so it should qualify for DSCR financing and cover its own debt service from day one. This is the buyer this deal is built for.

Not a fit

Price-disciplined buyer

—

Break-even purchase price

Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.

Year-one tax shield estimate

For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.

$99.0K

Estimated first-year deduction · range $82.2K–$112.9K

Purchase price: $401,000
Land allocation (excluded): −$140,350
Depreciable basis: $260,650
Cost-seg accelerated: $78,195
+ Bonus depreciation & furnishings: $20,852

Why this matters here

At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $30.4K–$41.8K in estimated federal tax saved.

This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.

Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.

Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.

Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.

Price sensitivity & break-even

How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).

Purchase price$401,000 (+0.0% vs asking)

At this price: cash-on-cash +18.5%, DSCR 1.96, cash flow $22,933/yr

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price
Price vs asking	Price	Cash-on-cash	DSCR	Band
-25%	$300,750	29.5%	2.61	Positive
-22%	$312,780	27.8%	2.51	Positive
-15%	$340,850	24.4%	2.30	Positive
-8%	$368,920	21.4%	2.13	Positive
Asking	$401,000	18.5%	1.96	Positive
+8%	$433,080	15.8%	1.81	Positive
+15%	$461,150	13.8%	1.70	Positive

Below break-evenAt break-evenPositive

Break-even price

Out of range

This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.

Discount needed

—

The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.

If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo

+$3,519/yr

Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.

Gross revenue$71,918

Booking & management fees−$9,349

Airbnb fee (3%)$2,158

Property mgmt (10%)$7,192

Net revenue

$62,569

Property operating costs−$15,625

Insurance, utilities & maintenance$11,615

Property tax (est.)$4,010

Net operating income (NOI)Before mortgage · 65% margin

$46,944

Debt service (mortgage)−$24,011

Annual cash flow$22,933

$1,911/mo after all expenses

Cash to close

Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing

$116,290

Return on cash:37%

Down payment

25% of purchase price

$100,250

Closing costs

1% of purchase price

$4,010

Furnishing budget

3BR · est. 3% of purchase price

$12,030

You qualify for STR financing

Your DSCR is 1.96 · lenders typically require 1.0+.

01.0 threshold2.0+

Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.

Return & exit scenario

What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.

Levered IRR

38.0%

over 5-yr hold, with tax shield

Equity multiple

3.1×

total proceeds vs. $116,290 invested

Projected value at exit

$511,789

year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation

Tax shield contribution

+9.4 pts

of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation

Equity builtAppreciationCumulative cash flow (netted into total)

Projected investment value by year
Year	Equity	Appreciation	Cumulative cash flow	Total value
Year 1	$103,305	$20,050	$59,580	$182,935
Year 2	$106,581	$41,103	$83,123	$230,807
Year 3	$110,094	$63,208	$107,279	$280,580
Year 4	$113,860	$86,418	$132,048	$332,326
Year 5	$117,899	$110,789	$157,433	$386,121

Projection, not a promise.

Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.

Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.

Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.

Get a Stanley STR agent who understands this deal.

STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Stanley agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.

Vetted STR specialistsFree to investorsNo obligation

Popular Airbnb Investment Opportunities Near This Property (Analyzed by Chalet Users)

136 Wildwood Ln, Shenandoah, VA 22849, USA

3 bed 2 bath 8 guests

Revenue

$52,965/yr

Daily Rate

$302

Occupancy

0.6%

1306 Park Line Rd, Stanley, VA 22851, USA

2 bed 2 bath 6 guests

Revenue

$62,452/yr

250 Galloway Spring Lane, Shenandoah, VA, USA

1 bed 1 bath 2 guests

Revenue

$35,942/yr

3871 Leaksville Rd, Luray, VA 22835, USA

3 bed 2 bath 8 guests

Revenue

$49,149/yr

1045 Sundance Mountain Road, New Market, VA, USA

3 bed 2 bath 8 guests

Revenue

$56,329/yr

224 Cardinal Dr, Luray, VA 22835, USA

2 bed 2 bath 6 guests

Revenue

$42,136/yr

Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

TOOLS & CALCULATORS

LEARNING & RESOURCES

SERVICES & PARTNERS

MARKET INSIGHTS

Three ways this deal works — and who each one fits

Year-one tax shield estimate

Price sensitivity & break-even

Return & exit scenario

Get a Stanley STR agent who understands this deal.

Popular Airbnb Investment Opportunities Near This Property (Analyzed by Chalet Users)

Popular Airbnb Investment Opportunities Near This Property (Analyzed by Chalet Users)