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3102 Cove Ridge Way, Sevierville, TN, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$52,802
$4,400/mo · at 53% occupancy & $370/night
-$451
-$38/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
5.9%
Cash-on-cash
-0.3%
DSCR
0.98
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$52,802/yr
Market avg: $52,802/yr · 53% occ · $370 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$23,314/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$211–$532
Median $370
20%–88%
Median 53%
$28.3K–$96.5K
Median $49.6K
188–362
Median 277
This property · $52.8K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
362 days available · 189 days booked ·
248 days available · 206 days booked ·
267 days available · 169 days booked ·
310 days available · 202 days booked ·
242 days available · 160 days booked ·
254 days available · 158 days booked ·
343 days available · 177 days booked ·
346 days available · 218 days booked ·
244 days available · 146 days booked ·
316 days available · 129 days booked ·
223 days available · 159 days booked ·
297 days available · 149 days booked ·
285 days available · 150 days booked ·
263 days available · 136 days booked ·
313 days available · 198 days booked ·
311 days available · 145 days booked ·
256 days available · 147 days booked ·
271 days available · 145 days booked ·
268 days available · 139 days booked ·
252 days available · 131 days booked ·
337 days available · 133 days booked ·
239 days available · 134 days booked ·
266 days available · 148 days booked ·
272 days available · 143 days booked ·
285 days available · 122 days booked ·
323 days available · 129 days booked ·
189 days available · 144 days booked ·
259 days available · 122 days booked ·
330 days available · 92 days booked ·
225 days available · 140 days booked ·
323 days available · 193 days booked ·
293 days available · 145 days booked ·
313 days available · 158 days booked ·
281 days available · 121 days booked ·
320 days available · 215 days booked ·
313 days available · 118 days booked ·
263 days available · 118 days booked ·
302 days available · 112 days booked ·
303 days available · 94 days booked ·
250 days available · 124 days booked ·
277 days available · 118 days booked ·
333 days available · 137 days booked ·
188 days available · 109 days booked ·
259 days available · 149 days booked ·
326 days available · 154 days booked ·
257 days available · 106 days booked ·
296 days available · 164 days booked ·
230 days available · 126 days booked ·
216 days available · 89 days booked ·
277 days available · 117 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$492.5K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even sits only ~2% below the Zestimate, which is inside normal negotiating range. A disciplined buyer has a realistic path to making this work at close to asking.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.98
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Sevierville submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -0.3%, DSCR 0.98, cash flow -$451/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | 6.0% | 1.31 | Positive |
| -22% | $390,000 | 5.1% | 1.26 | Positive |
| -15% | $425,000 | 3.1% | 1.16 | Positive |
| -8% | $460,000 | 1.4% | 1.07 | Positive |
| Asking | $500,000 | -0.3% | 0.98 | At break-even |
| +8% | $540,000 | -1.8% | 0.91 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $575,000 | -2.9% | 0.86 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$492,470
~2% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$7,530
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,400 · peaks at $6,202 in Jul
Annual avg 53% · peaks at 73% in Oct
−$38/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:16.9%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.98 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
18.9%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.1×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.1 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $45,244 | $199,053 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $45,585 | $229,729 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $46,730 | $262,816 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $48,691 | $298,414 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $51,480 | $336,627 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Sevierville agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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