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3018 Lilly Jane Way, San Tan Valley, AZ, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$35,752
$2,979/mo · at 70% occupancy & $176/night
-$1,483
-$124/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
5.6%
Cash-on-cash
-1.3%
DSCR
0.93
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$35,752/yr
Market avg: $35,752/yr · 70% occ · $176 ADR
Financing
$20,993/yr
Operating costs
$16,242/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 10 properties
$101–$274
Median $185
50%–87%
Median 61%
$21.7K–$81.2K
Median $28.8K
187–361
Median 295
This property · $35.8K
Comparable properties (10)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
322 days available · 280 days booked ·
335 days available · 194 days booked ·
361 days available · 267 days booked ·
298 days available · 170 days booked ·
200 days available · 104 days booked ·
332 days available · 209 days booked ·
187 days available · 94 days booked ·
292 days available · 201 days booked ·
222 days available · 160 days booked ·
190 days available · 106 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$86.6K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$325.8K
Break-even purchase price
The deal pencils only if you buy right. At ~7% below the Zestimate the numbers reach break-even — treat that as a negotiation anchor, not a fantasy. Pay asking and the math stops working.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.93
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different San Tan Valley submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$86.6K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $71.9K–$98.7K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $26.6K–$36.5K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -1.3%, DSCR 0.93, cash flow -$1,483/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $262,950 | 4.3% | 1.24 | Positive |
| -22% | $273,468 | 3.4% | 1.19 | Positive |
| -15% | $298,010 | 1.7% | 1.09 | Positive |
| -8% | $322,552 | 0.2% | 1.01 | At break-even |
| Asking | $350,600 | -1.3% | 0.93 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $378,648 | -2.7% | 0.86 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $403,190 | -3.7% | 0.81 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$325,829
~7% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$24,771
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$3,077/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
−$124/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$101,674
Return on cash:15.8%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.93 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
17.8%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.0×
total proceeds vs. $101,674 invested
Projected value at exit
$447,464
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.0 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $90,321 | $17,530 | $30,558 | $138,409 |
| Year 2 | $93,185 | $35,937 | $29,612 | $158,733 |
| Year 3 | $96,256 | $55,263 | $29,209 | $180,729 |
| Year 4 | $99,550 | $75,556 | $29,359 | $204,465 |
| Year 5 | $103,081 | $96,864 | $30,070 | $230,015 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted San Tan Valley agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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