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2958 Lucayan Harbour Cir, Kissimmee, FL 34746, USA
Covers its debt with margin to spare at the current price.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$44,506
$3,709/mo · at 77% occupancy & $210/night
$14,798
$1,233/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
11.8%
Cash-on-cash
17.1%
DSCR
1.96
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$44,506/yr
Market avg: $44,506/yr · 77% occ · $210 ADR
Financing
$15,376/yr
Operating costs
$14,332/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$149–$370
Median $210
48%–93%
Median 77%
$24.0K–$96.5K
Median $43.0K
210–365
Median 310
This property · $44.5K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential High · Appreciation potential Medium
359 days available · 269 days booked ·
345 days available · 262 days booked ·
289 days available · 178 days booked ·
338 days available · 266 days booked ·
365 days available · 292 days booked ·
365 days available · 271 days booked ·
234 days available · 169 days booked ·
330 days available · 240 days booked ·
332 days available · 226 days booked ·
318 days available · 250 days booked ·
333 days available · 275 days booked ·
360 days available · 274 days booked ·
337 days available · 245 days booked ·
333 days available · 267 days booked ·
308 days available · 242 days booked ·
338 days available · 202 days booked ·
365 days available · 265 days booked ·
311 days available · 235 days booked ·
281 days available · 208 days booked ·
273 days available · 192 days booked ·
296 days available · 216 days booked ·
334 days available · 280 days booked ·
351 days available · 249 days booked ·
339 days available · 208 days booked ·
285 days available · 207 days booked ·
347 days available · 241 days booked ·
234 days available · 216 days booked ·
330 days available · 201 days booked ·
210 days available · 163 days booked ·
282 days available · 179 days booked ·
327 days available · 229 days booked ·
316 days available · 230 days booked ·
292 days available · 244 days booked ·
284 days available · 245 days booked ·
344 days available · 175 days booked ·
311 days available · 213 days booked ·
271 days available · 174 days booked ·
274 days available · 210 days booked ·
343 days available · 237 days booked ·
288 days available · 189 days booked ·
257 days available · 195 days booked ·
282 days available · 179 days booked ·
285 days available · 179 days booked ·
227 days available · 172 days booked ·
303 days available · 165 days booked ·
256 days available · 126 days booked ·
307 days available · 148 days booked ·
278 days available · 156 days booked ·
279 days available · 171 days booked ·
305 days available · 167 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$63.4K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.96
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property clears the 1.20 DSCR most lenders require, so it should qualify for DSCR financing and cover its own debt service from day one. This is the buyer this deal is built for.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$63.4K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $52.6K–$72.3K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $19.5K–$26.8K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +17.1%, DSCR 1.96, cash flow $14,798/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $192,600 | 26.6% | 2.62 | Positive |
| -22% | $200,304 | 25.2% | 2.52 | Positive |
| -15% | $218,280 | 22.3% | 2.31 | Positive |
| -8% | $236,256 | 19.7% | 2.13 | Positive |
| Asking | $256,800 | 17.1% | 1.96 | Positive |
| +8% | $277,344 | 14.7% | 1.82 | Positive |
| +15% | $295,320 | 12.9% | 1.71 | Positive |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$2,254/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $3,709 · peaks at $4,794 in Dec
Annual avg 70% · peaks at 79% in Feb
$1,233/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$74,472
Return on cash:37.1%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.96 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
38.6%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
3.1×
total proceeds vs. $74,472 invested
Projected value at exit
$327,749
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+9.5 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $66,156 | $12,840 | $38,267 | $117,263 |
| Year 2 | $68,254 | $26,322 | $53,733 | $148,309 |
| Year 3 | $70,504 | $40,478 | $69,876 | $180,858 |
| Year 4 | $72,916 | $55,342 | $86,707 | $214,965 |
| Year 5 | $75,503 | $70,949 | $104,236 | $250,687 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Kissimmee agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.