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2937 E Osborn Rd, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$38,867
$3,239/mo · at 74% occupancy & $186/night
-$16,814
-$1,401/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
2.9%
Cash-on-cash
-10.4%
DSCR
0.49
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$38,867/yr
Market avg: $38,867/yr · 74% occ · $186 ADR
Financing
$32,687/yr
Operating costs
$22,994/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 33 properties
$116–$286
Median $186
41%–94%
Median 74%
$24.0K–$69.2K
Median $36.6K
209–365
Median 317
This property · $38.9K
Comparable properties (33)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
306 days available · 280 days booked ·
356 days available · 212 days booked ·
325 days available · 253 days booked ·
365 days available · 283 days booked ·
342 days available · 231 days booked ·
358 days available · 309 days booked ·
299 days available · 247 days booked ·
358 days available · 293 days booked ·
303 days available · 174 days booked ·
365 days available · 301 days booked ·
309 days available · 194 days booked ·
317 days available · 224 days booked ·
270 days available · 228 days booked ·
319 days available · 268 days booked ·
365 days available · 253 days booked ·
365 days available · 306 days booked ·
260 days available · 167 days booked ·
319 days available · 183 days booked ·
230 days available · 152 days booked ·
277 days available · 164 days booked ·
325 days available · 264 days booked ·
235 days available · 159 days booked ·
292 days available · 233 days booked ·
341 days available · 191 days booked ·
283 days available · 153 days booked ·
209 days available · 145 days booked ·
317 days available · 234 days booked ·
305 days available · 140 days booked ·
330 days available · 238 days booked ·
254 days available · 208 days booked ·
285 days available · 183 days booked ·
349 days available · 141 days booked ·
299 days available · 150 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$134.8K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$265.1K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even is ~51% below the Zestimate, a discount sellers in Phoenix rarely accept. Treat the number as a walk-away line rather than an opening offer.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.49
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Phoenix submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$134.8K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $111.9K–$153.7K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $41.4K–$56.9K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -10.4%, DSCR 0.49, cash flow -$16,814/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $409,425 | -6.8% | 0.65 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $425,802 | -7.4% | 0.62 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $464,015 | -8.5% | 0.57 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $502,228 | -9.4% | 0.53 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $545,900 | -10.4% | 0.49 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $589,572 | -11.2% | 0.45 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $627,785 | -11.9% | 0.42 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$265,085
~51% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$280,815
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,791/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $3,239 · peaks at $4,908 in Jan
Annual avg 70% · peaks at 83% in Feb
−$1,401/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$158,311
Return on cash:6.6%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.49 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
9.2%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.5×
total proceeds vs. $158,311 invested
Projected value at exit
$696,722
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.9 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $140,634 | $27,295 | $33,076 | $201,005 |
| Year 2 | $145,094 | $55,955 | $16,845 | $217,893 |
| Year 3 | $149,876 | $86,047 | $1,206 | $237,129 |
| Year 4 | $155,003 | $117,645 | -$13,833 | $258,815 |
| Year 5 | $160,502 | $150,822 | -$28,262 | $283,062 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Phoenix agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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