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2803 W Lake Ave, Tampa, FL 33607, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$51,353
$4,279/mo · at 61% occupancy & $325/night
-$34,238
-$2,853/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
2%
Cash-on-cash
-14.2%
DSCR
0.33
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$51,353/yr
Market avg: $51,353/yr · 61% occ · $325 ADR
Financing
$51,021/yr
Operating costs
$34,569/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 43 properties
$182–$524
Median $326
28%–92%
Median 61%
$31.4K–$87.8K
Median $48.7K
207–365
Median 301
This property · $51.4K
Comparable properties (43)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
302 days available · 224 days booked ·
273 days available · 159 days booked ·
269 days available · 186 days booked ·
365 days available · 244 days booked ·
333 days available · 293 days booked ·
365 days available · 166 days booked ·
271 days available · 163 days booked ·
283 days available · 156 days booked ·
331 days available · 194 days booked ·
332 days available · 180 days booked ·
260 days available · 140 days booked ·
287 days available · 196 days booked ·
284 days available · 160 days booked ·
365 days available · 158 days booked ·
266 days available · 109 days booked ·
301 days available · 166 days booked ·
350 days available · 136 days booked ·
352 days available · 252 days booked ·
348 days available · 129 days booked ·
244 days available · 139 days booked ·
276 days available · 192 days booked ·
315 days available · 224 days booked ·
357 days available · 147 days booked ·
319 days available · 182 days booked ·
208 days available · 152 days booked ·
236 days available · 152 days booked ·
305 days available · 188 days booked ·
317 days available · 140 days booked ·
318 days available · 227 days booked ·
335 days available · 118 days booked ·
349 days available · 156 days booked ·
246 days available · 152 days booked ·
248 days available · 158 days booked ·
364 days available · 119 days booked ·
255 days available · 140 days booked ·
249 days available · 156 days booked ·
223 days available · 137 days booked ·
364 days available · 174 days booked ·
308 days available · 136 days booked ·
233 days available · 102 days booked ·
264 days available · 148 days booked ·
207 days available · 142 days booked ·
242 days available · 119 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$210.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.33
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Tampa submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$210.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $174.7K–$239.9K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $64.6K–$88.8K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -14.2%, DSCR 0.33, cash flow -$34,238/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $639,075 | -11.5% | 0.44 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $664,638 | -11.9% | 0.42 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $724,285 | -12.8% | 0.39 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $783,932 | -13.5% | 0.36 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $852,100 | -14.2% | 0.33 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $920,268 | -14.8% | 0.30 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $979,915 | -15.2% | 0.29 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$7,478/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,279 · peaks at $5,183 in Jan
Annual avg 56% · peaks at 67% in Mar
−$2,853/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$247,109
Return on cash:3.4%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.33 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
6.2%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.4×
total proceeds vs. $247,109 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,087,520
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.6 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $219,517 | $42,605 | $43,635 | $305,757 |
| Year 2 | $226,478 | $87,340 | $10,168 | $323,986 |
| Year 3 | $233,942 | $134,312 | -$22,518 | $345,736 |
| Year 4 | $241,946 | $183,633 | -$54,410 | $371,169 |
| Year 5 | $250,529 | $235,420 | -$85,497 | $400,451 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Tampa agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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