All Real Estate Services are offered through Chalet Realty (DBA of Mahalla Realty LLC).
Texas Real Estate Commission Consumer Protection NoticeTexas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage ServicesTREC DisclaimerChalet (“GetChalet Inc.”) provides general educational content and tools for real-estate investors. Chalet is not a law firm, CPA firm, or investment adviser, and does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. Nothing on this site creates a CPA-client, attorney-client, or fiduciary relationship. Tax laws change, and state rules may differ from federal rules (e.g., California decouples from federal bonus depreciation). Always consult your own qualified tax and legal professionals about your specific situation.
The term 'Airbnb' is used on our site in a colloquial sense, akin to saying 'I am going to Airbnb it.' This usage is intended to refer broadly to the concept of short-term rentals and not specifically to the Airbnb platform or services. Airbnb, Inc. is not affiliated with Chalet, nor does it endorse or sponsor our services. We use the term in this generalized manner to easily convey the idea of participating in short-term rental activities, recognizing 'Airbnb' as a term familiar to many in this context.
Affiliate & Referral Disclosure. Chalet may receive referral fees or other consideration when you engage with featured agents, lenders, cost-seg providers, or other partners referenced on this site. These relationships may influence which partners we present. We follow the FTC Endorsement Guides and aim to disclose material connections clearly and conspicuously.
Chalet (DBA of GetChalet Inc.) is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Airbnb, Airbnb.com, or any of its subsidiaries or its affiliates. The official Airbnb website can be found at http://www.airbnb.com. The name "Airbnb" as well as related names, marks, emblems and images are registered trademarks of Airbnb, Inc.
27784 W Shore Rd, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352, USA
Covers its debt with margin to spare at the current price.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$66,819
$5,568/mo · at 46% occupancy & $396/night
$11,744
$979/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
8.3%
Cash-on-cash
7.8%
DSCR
1.39
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$66,819/yr
Market avg: $66,819/yr · 46% occ · $396 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$25,136/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 38 properties
$256–$549
Median $396
17%–74%
Median 47%
$37.9K–$111.3K
Median $63.4K
306–365
Median 365
This property · $66.8K
Comparable properties (38)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
365 days available · 257 days booked ·
365 days available · 204 days booked ·
365 days available · 194 days booked ·
365 days available · 189 days booked ·
306 days available · 170 days booked ·
365 days available · 192 days booked ·
365 days available · 214 days booked ·
353 days available · 174 days booked ·
365 days available · 170 days booked ·
365 days available · 185 days booked ·
365 days available · 230 days booked ·
365 days available · 210 days booked ·
361 days available · 155 days booked ·
365 days available · 176 days booked ·
347 days available · 218 days booked ·
365 days available · 254 days booked ·
334 days available · 162 days booked ·
349 days available · 179 days booked ·
365 days available · 137 days booked ·
343 days available · 120 days booked ·
365 days available · 138 days booked ·
365 days available · 149 days booked ·
342 days available · 188 days booked ·
333 days available · 140 days booked ·
365 days available · 125 days booked ·
365 days available · 140 days booked ·
365 days available · 177 days booked ·
365 days available · 150 days booked ·
365 days available · 133 days booked ·
341 days available · 107 days booked ·
339 days available · 84 days booked ·
365 days available · 157 days booked ·
313 days available · 150 days booked ·
351 days available · 90 days booked ·
345 days available · 88 days booked ·
340 days available · 107 days booked ·
353 days available · 74 days booked ·
365 days available · 103 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.39
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property clears the 1.20 DSCR most lenders require, so it should qualify for DSCR financing and cover its own debt service from day one. This is the buyer this deal is built for.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +7.8%, DSCR 1.39, cash flow $11,744/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | 16.4% | 1.86 | Positive |
| -22% | $390,000 | 15.1% | 1.78 | Positive |
| -15% | $425,000 | 12.4% | 1.64 | Positive |
| -8% | $460,000 | 10.1% | 1.51 | Positive |
| Asking | $500,000 | 7.8% | 1.39 | Positive |
| +8% | $540,000 | 5.8% | 1.29 | Positive |
| +15% | $575,000 | 4.3% | 1.21 | Positive |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $5,568 · peaks at $8,572 in Dec
Annual avg 45% · peaks at 58% in Jul
$979/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:25.3%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.39 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
27.0%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.5×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+8.1 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $57,439 | $211,248 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $70,185 | $254,329 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $83,949 | $300,035 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $98,745 | $348,469 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $114,589 | $399,737 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Lake Arrowhead agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
© 2026 Chalet. All rights reserved.
This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
Visit getchalet.com for more tools
Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
265 Flower Dr, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352, USA
3 bed 1 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$33,881/yr
Daily Rate
$185
Occupancy
0.5%
28834 Zion Drive, Lake Arrowhead, CA, USA
3 bed 3 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$81,951/yr
407 Dolly Varden Drive, Lake Arrowhead, CA, USA
4 bed 2 bath 10 guests
Revenue
$68,795/yr
117 John Muir Rd, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352, USA
3 bed 2 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$57,457/yr
238 Hemlock Dr, Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352, USA
1 bed 2 bath 2 guests
Revenue
$26,468/yr
1017 Burnt Mill Rd, Crest Park, CA 92326, USA
3 bed 2 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$56,646/yr
Daily Rate
$403
Occupancy
0.5%
Daily Rate
$382
Occupancy
0.5%
Daily Rate
$343
Occupancy
0.5%
Daily Rate
$141
Occupancy
0.6%
Daily Rate
$343
Occupancy
0.5%