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195 Hillside Dr, Mammoth Lakes, CA 93546, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$79,884
$6,657/mo · at 47% occupancy & $526/night
-$1,231
-$103/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
5.8%
Cash-on-cash
-0.6%
DSCR
0.97
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$79,884/yr
Market avg: $79,884/yr · 47% occ · $526 ADR
Financing
$45,716/yr
Operating costs
$35,399/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$342–$848
Median $527
25%–92%
Median 48%
$46.6K–$171.9K
Median $70.0K
220–365
Median 326
This property · $79.9K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
349 days available · 240 days booked ·
349 days available · 241 days booked ·
314 days available · 187 days booked ·
365 days available · 204 days booked ·
365 days available · 185 days booked ·
359 days available · 239 days booked ·
339 days available · 171 days booked ·
352 days available · 185 days booked ·
231 days available · 184 days booked ·
330 days available · 164 days booked ·
329 days available · 178 days booked ·
337 days available · 152 days booked ·
355 days available · 104 days booked ·
352 days available · 182 days booked ·
365 days available · 172 days booked ·
354 days available · 136 days booked ·
324 days available · 169 days booked ·
337 days available · 191 days booked ·
334 days available · 147 days booked ·
258 days available · 143 days booked ·
327 days available · 151 days booked ·
347 days available · 126 days booked ·
295 days available · 111 days booked ·
282 days available · 110 days booked ·
360 days available · 136 days booked ·
311 days available · 127 days booked ·
338 days available · 97 days booked ·
341 days available · 206 days booked ·
365 days available · 125 days booked ·
220 days available · 133 days booked ·
325 days available · 189 days booked ·
279 days available · 172 days booked ·
335 days available · 168 days booked ·
320 days available · 141 days booked ·
276 days available · 124 days booked ·
283 days available · 123 days booked ·
323 days available · 113 days booked ·
284 days available · 135 days booked ·
296 days available · 113 days booked ·
308 days available · 113 days booked ·
304 days available · 106 days booked ·
334 days available · 127 days booked ·
287 days available · 125 days booked ·
303 days available · 130 days booked ·
317 days available · 120 days booked ·
322 days available · 81 days booked ·
320 days available · 172 days booked ·
256 days available · 116 days booked ·
364 days available · 100 days booked ·
278 days available · 127 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$188.6K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$742.9K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even sits only ~3% below the Zestimate, which is inside normal negotiating range. A disciplined buyer has a realistic path to making this work at close to asking.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.97
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Mammoth Lakes submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$188.6K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $156.5K–$215.0K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $57.9K–$79.5K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -0.6%, DSCR 0.97, cash flow -$1,231/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $572,625 | 6.0% | 1.30 | Positive |
| -22% | $595,530 | 5.0% | 1.25 | Positive |
| -15% | $648,975 | 3.0% | 1.14 | Positive |
| -8% | $702,420 | 1.2% | 1.06 | Positive |
| Asking | $763,500 | -0.6% | 0.97 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $824,580 | -2.1% | 0.90 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $878,025 | -3.3% | 0.85 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$742,942
~3% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$20,558
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$6,701/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $6,657 · peaks at $11,820 in Jan
Annual avg 47% · peaks at 62% in Jul
−$103/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$221,415
Return on cash:16.7%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.97 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
18.7%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.0×
total proceeds vs. $221,415 invested
Projected value at exit
$974,441
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.1 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $196,692 | $38,175 | $68,545 | $303,412 |
| Year 2 | $202,929 | $78,259 | $68,513 | $349,700 |
| Year 3 | $209,617 | $120,347 | $69,696 | $399,660 |
| Year 4 | $216,789 | $164,539 | $72,114 | $453,442 |
| Year 5 | $224,479 | $210,941 | $75,785 | $511,205 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Mammoth Lakes agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.