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18430 Old Monte Rio Rd, Guerneville, CA 95446, USA
Cash-flow positive, but the margin over debt service is thin.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$95,715
$7,976/mo · at 60% occupancy & $554/night
$2,741
$228/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
6.3%
Cash-on-cash
1.1%
DSCR
1.05
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$95,715/yr
Market avg: $95,715/yr · 60% occ · $554 ADR
Financing
$52,069/yr
Operating costs
$40,905/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 10 properties
$346–$1,277
Median $498
27%–83%
Median 58%
$50.6K–$169.1K
Median $96.8K
173–357
Median 330
This property · $95.7K
Comparable properties (10)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
339 days available · 129 days booked ·
173 days available · 144 days booked ·
213 days available · 128 days booked ·
323 days available · 216 days booked ·
258 days available · 175 days booked ·
352 days available · 169 days booked ·
280 days available · 216 days booked ·
337 days available · 189 days booked ·
356 days available · 146 days booked ·
357 days available · 96 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$214.8K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$915.4K
Break-even purchase price
The deal already breaks even at or above the Zestimate, so you don't need a discount to make the math work. Buy at asking and the numbers still hold — rare enough in Guerneville to be worth moving on.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.05
DSCR at asking
The property covers its debt service at asking but sits below the 1.20 most lenders want to see, so expect a larger down payment or a rate buy-down to get it financed. There's no margin for a soft season.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$214.8K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $178.3K–$244.9K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $66.0K–$90.6K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +1.1%, DSCR 1.05, cash flow $2,741/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $652,200 | 8.3% | 1.40 | Positive |
| -22% | $678,288 | 7.2% | 1.35 | Positive |
| -15% | $739,160 | 5.0% | 1.24 | Positive |
| -8% | $800,032 | 3.0% | 1.14 | Positive |
| Asking | $869,600 | 1.1% | 1.05 | Positive |
| +8% | $939,168 | -0.5% | 0.97 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $1,000,040 | -1.8% | 0.92 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$915,374
~-5% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$45,774
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$7,632/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
$228/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$252,184
Return on cash:18.3%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.05 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
20.2%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.1×
total proceeds vs. $252,184 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,109,854
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.3 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $224,025 | $43,480 | $82,214 | $349,719 |
| Year 2 | $231,129 | $89,134 | $86,390 | $406,654 |
| Year 3 | $238,747 | $137,071 | $92,024 | $467,842 |
| Year 4 | $246,915 | $187,404 | $99,138 | $533,457 |
| Year 5 | $255,674 | $240,254 | $107,752 | $603,680 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Guerneville agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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