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1648 E Mitchell Dr, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$48,378
$4,032/mo · at 62% occupancy & $301/night
-$3,773
-$314/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
5.2%
Cash-on-cash
-2.5%
DSCR
0.87
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$48,378/yr
Market avg: $48,378/yr · 62% occ · $301 ADR
Financing
$29,597/yr
Operating costs
$22,554/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 26 properties
$156–$464
Median $299
29%–87%
Median 62%
$27.2K–$98.4K
Median $44.3K
225–365
Median 278
This property · $48.4K
Comparable properties (26)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
365 days available · 266 days booked ·
229 days available · 181 days booked ·
271 days available · 196 days booked ·
311 days available · 139 days booked ·
271 days available · 174 days booked ·
318 days available · 183 days booked ·
265 days available · 160 days booked ·
226 days available · 173 days booked ·
322 days available · 184 days booked ·
322 days available · 119 days booked ·
276 days available · 126 days booked ·
299 days available · 186 days booked ·
291 days available · 162 days booked ·
240 days available · 115 days booked ·
286 days available · 126 days booked ·
279 days available · 223 days booked ·
357 days available · 194 days booked ·
244 days available · 164 days booked ·
269 days available · 161 days booked ·
266 days available · 197 days booked ·
229 days available · 135 days booked ·
225 days available · 132 days booked ·
279 days available · 129 days booked ·
313 days available · 134 days booked ·
294 days available · 200 days booked ·
270 days available · 135 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$122.1K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$431.3K
Break-even purchase price
The deal pencils only if you buy right. At ~13% below the Zestimate the numbers reach break-even — treat that as a negotiation anchor, not a fantasy. Pay asking and the math stops working.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.87
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Phoenix submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$122.1K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $101.3K–$139.2K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.5K–$51.5K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -2.5%, DSCR 0.87, cash flow -$3,773/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $370,725 | 3.1% | 1.16 | Positive |
| -22% | $385,554 | 2.3% | 1.12 | Positive |
| -15% | $420,155 | 0.5% | 1.03 | Positive |
| -8% | $454,756 | -1.0% | 0.95 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $494,300 | -2.5% | 0.87 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $533,844 | -3.9% | 0.81 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $568,445 | -4.9% | 0.76 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$431,284
~13% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$63,016
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,338/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,031 · peaks at $5,324 in Feb
Annual avg 59% · peaks at 75% in Mar
−$314/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$143,347
Return on cash:14.6%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.87 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
16.7%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.9×
total proceeds vs. $143,347 invested
Projected value at exit
$630,866
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+6.9 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $127,341 | $24,715 | $41,401 | $193,457 |
| Year 2 | $131,379 | $50,666 | $38,354 | $220,398 |
| Year 3 | $135,709 | $77,914 | $36,043 | $249,666 |
| Year 4 | $140,352 | $106,525 | $34,480 | $281,357 |
| Year 5 | $145,331 | $136,566 | $33,675 | $315,572 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Phoenix agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
4506 N 14th St, Phoenix, AZ 85014, USA
3 bed 2 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$53,562/yr
Daily Rate
$314
Occupancy
0.7%
4142 N 25th St, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
2 bed 2 bath 6 guests
Revenue
$31,268/yr
4635 N 22nd St, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
2 bed 2 bath 6 guests
Revenue
$33,942/yr
4607 N 24th Pl, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
3 bed 1 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$29,953/yr
2937 E Osborn Rd, Phoenix, AZ 85016, USA
2 bed 2 bath 6 guests
Revenue
$30,900/yr
E Campbell Ave, Phoenix, AZ, USA
3 bed 2 bath 8 guests
Revenue
$51,040/yr
Daily Rate
$140
Occupancy
0.8%
Daily Rate
$128
Occupancy
0.8%
Daily Rate
$181
Occupancy
0.6%
Daily Rate
$137
Occupancy
0.8%
Daily Rate
$326
Occupancy
0.6%