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1551 Mountain Dreams Way, Pigeon Forge, TN, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$56,721
$4,727/mo · at 57% occupancy & $343/night
-$30,630
-$2,552/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
2.4%
Cash-on-cash
-12.5%
DSCR
0.41
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$56,721/yr
Market avg: $56,721/yr · 57% occ · $343 ADR
Financing
$51,710/yr
Operating costs
$35,641/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 31 properties
$263–$566
Median $343
32%–83%
Median 57%
$29.4K–$116.9K
Median $51.4K
153–365
Median 290
This property · $56.7K
Comparable properties (31)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
365 days available · 215 days booked ·
294 days available · 204 days booked ·
347 days available · 196 days booked ·
284 days available · 189 days booked ·
361 days available · 219 days booked ·
303 days available · 179 days booked ·
356 days available · 160 days booked ·
239 days available · 172 days booked ·
303 days available · 232 days booked ·
285 days available · 189 days booked ·
239 days available · 165 days booked ·
281 days available · 172 days booked ·
319 days available · 176 days booked ·
297 days available · 172 days booked ·
322 days available · 123 days booked ·
349 days available · 155 days booked ·
235 days available · 138 days booked ·
274 days available · 125 days booked ·
331 days available · 131 days booked ·
350 days available · 155 days booked ·
248 days available · 128 days booked ·
230 days available · 161 days booked ·
265 days available · 143 days booked ·
191 days available · 131 days booked ·
323 days available · 100 days booked ·
237 days available · 110 days booked ·
290 days available · 133 days booked ·
263 days available · 115 days booked ·
153 days available · 77 days booked ·
307 days available · 106 days booked ·
276 days available · 88 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$213.3K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$352.1K
Break-even purchase price
Break-even is ~59% below the Zestimate, a discount sellers in Pigeon Forge rarely accept. Treat the number as a walk-away line rather than an opening offer.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.41
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Pigeon Forge submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$213.3K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $177.0K–$243.2K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $65.5K–$90.0K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -12.5%, DSCR 0.41, cash flow -$30,630/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $647,700 | -9.4% | 0.54 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $673,608 | -9.9% | 0.52 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $734,060 | -10.8% | 0.48 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $794,512 | -11.7% | 0.44 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $863,600 | -12.5% | 0.41 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $932,688 | -13.2% | 0.38 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $993,140 | -13.8% | 0.35 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$352,058
~59% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$511,542
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$7,579/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $4,727 · peaks at $6,224 in Oct
Annual avg 55% · peaks at 76% in Jul
−$2,552/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$250,444
Return on cash:5%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.41 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
7.7%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.4×
total proceeds vs. $250,444 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,102,197
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.8 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $222,479 | $43,180 | $48,294 | $313,954 |
| Year 2 | $229,534 | $88,519 | $18,515 | $336,569 |
| Year 3 | $237,099 | $136,125 | -$10,400 | $362,824 |
| Year 4 | $245,211 | $186,111 | -$38,439 | $392,883 |
| Year 5 | $253,910 | $238,597 | -$65,589 | $426,918 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Pigeon Forge agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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