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1538 Missouri St Apt C, San Diego, CA 92109
Covers its debt with margin to spare at the current price.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$82,578
$6,882/mo · at 70% occupancy & $492/night
$25,454
$2,121/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
11.1%
Cash-on-cash
17%
DSCR
1.85
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$82,578/yr
Market avg: $82,578/yr · 70% occ · $492 ADR
Financing
$29,939/yr
Operating costs
$27,185/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$267–$754
Median $492
26%–88%
Median 70%
$45.5K–$146.5K
Median $78.9K
149–339
Median 264
This property · $82.6K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential High · Appreciation potential Medium
310 days available · 236 days booked ·
263 days available · 215 days booked ·
219 days available · 179 days booked ·
312 days available · 179 days booked ·
270 days available · 198 days booked ·
265 days available · 191 days booked ·
231 days available · 166 days booked ·
236 days available · 173 days booked ·
317 days available · 199 days booked ·
278 days available · 208 days booked ·
304 days available · 243 days booked ·
187 days available · 156 days booked ·
216 days available · 164 days booked ·
339 days available · 145 days booked ·
242 days available · 152 days booked ·
183 days available · 148 days booked ·
210 days available · 136 days booked ·
271 days available · 238 days booked ·
155 days available · 134 days booked ·
255 days available · 149 days booked ·
208 days available · 151 days booked ·
249 days available · 181 days booked ·
295 days available · 166 days booked ·
208 days available · 147 days booked ·
279 days available · 180 days booked ·
297 days available · 200 days booked ·
149 days available · 128 days booked ·
284 days available · 209 days booked ·
235 days available · 180 days booked ·
282 days available · 158 days booked ·
288 days available · 105 days booked ·
308 days available · 222 days booked ·
290 days available · 187 days booked ·
265 days available · 152 days booked ·
305 days available · 106 days booked ·
270 days available · 134 days booked ·
268 days available · 183 days booked ·
273 days available · 161 days booked ·
292 days available · 122 days booked ·
190 days available · 141 days booked ·
273 days available · 195 days booked ·
260 days available · 113 days booked ·
193 days available · 122 days booked ·
245 days available · 196 days booked ·
172 days available · 130 days booked ·
252 days available · 189 days booked ·
245 days available · 162 days booked ·
254 days available · 108 days booked ·
294 days available · 147 days booked ·
197 days available · 138 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$123.5K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.85
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property clears the 1.20 DSCR most lenders require, so it should qualify for DSCR financing and cover its own debt service from day one. This is the buyer this deal is built for.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$123.5K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $102.5K–$140.8K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $37.9K–$52.1K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +17.0%, DSCR 1.85, cash flow $25,454/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $375,000 | 28.0% | 2.47 | Positive |
| -22% | $390,000 | 26.4% | 2.37 | Positive |
| -15% | $425,000 | 22.9% | 2.18 | Positive |
| -8% | $460,000 | 19.9% | 2.01 | Positive |
| Asking | $500,000 | 17.0% | 1.85 | Positive |
| +8% | $540,000 | 14.4% | 1.71 | Positive |
| +15% | $575,000 | 12.4% | 1.61 | Positive |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$4,388/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $6,881 · peaks at $10,051 in Jul
Annual avg 66% · peaks at 80% in Jul
$2,121/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$145,000
Return on cash:34.8%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.85 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
36.3%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
3.0×
total proceeds vs. $145,000 invested
Projected value at exit
$638,141
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+9.2 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $128,809 | $25,000 | $71,149 | $224,958 |
| Year 2 | $132,894 | $51,250 | $97,842 | $281,986 |
| Year 3 | $137,274 | $78,813 | $125,792 | $341,878 |
| Year 4 | $141,970 | $107,753 | $155,018 | $404,741 |
| Year 5 | $147,007 | $138,141 | $185,539 | $470,686 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted San Diego agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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