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1530 Moon Valley Dr, Davenport, FL 33896, USA
Priced too high to cash-flow with a loan — an equity or tax play, not income.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$41,435
$3,453/mo · at 72% occupancy & $239/night
-$27,956
-$2,330/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
1.9%
Cash-on-cash
-14%
DSCR
0.32
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$41,435/yr
Market avg: $41,435/yr · 72% occ · $239 ADR
Financing
$41,357/yr
Operating costs
$28,034/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$174–$309
Median $239
47%–94%
Median 72%
$23.4K–$78.1K
Median $40.2K
174–365
Median 281
This property · $41.4K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Low · Appreciation potential Medium
365 days available · 301 days booked ·
318 days available · 218 days booked ·
365 days available · 264 days booked ·
233 days available · 190 days booked ·
339 days available · 238 days booked ·
307 days available · 216 days booked ·
365 days available · 224 days booked ·
297 days available · 235 days booked ·
274 days available · 187 days booked ·
291 days available · 198 days booked ·
297 days available · 220 days booked ·
235 days available · 211 days booked ·
323 days available · 168 days booked ·
323 days available · 199 days booked ·
340 days available · 186 days booked ·
304 days available · 197 days booked ·
322 days available · 191 days booked ·
335 days available · 193 days booked ·
261 days available · 209 days booked ·
247 days available · 197 days booked ·
301 days available · 172 days booked ·
343 days available · 182 days booked ·
275 days available · 189 days booked ·
285 days available · 209 days booked ·
314 days available · 185 days booked ·
282 days available · 164 days booked ·
290 days available · 184 days booked ·
235 days available · 190 days booked ·
267 days available · 174 days booked ·
280 days available · 177 days booked ·
244 days available · 161 days booked ·
250 days available · 160 days booked ·
253 days available · 189 days booked ·
246 days available · 165 days booked ·
222 days available · 179 days booked ·
291 days available · 150 days booked ·
234 days available · 194 days booked ·
266 days available · 158 days booked ·
210 days available · 170 days booked ·
259 days available · 167 days booked ·
214 days available · 112 days booked ·
263 days available · 135 days booked ·
318 days available · 146 days booked ·
257 days available · 142 days booked ·
346 days available · 206 days booked ·
283 days available · 141 days booked ·
203 days available · 146 days booked ·
174 days available · 113 days booked ·
213 days available · 117 days booked ·
270 days available · 114 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$170.6K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
0.32
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't cover its own debt service, so it won't qualify for DSCR financing as modeled. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Davenport submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$170.6K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $141.6K–$194.5K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $52.4K–$72.0K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
Some states do not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state may not allow the same first-year treatment shown above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -14.0%, DSCR 0.32, cash flow -$27,956/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $518,025 | -11.4% | 0.43 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $538,746 | -11.8% | 0.42 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $587,095 | -12.6% | 0.38 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $635,444 | -13.3% | 0.35 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $690,700 | -14.0% | 0.32 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $745,956 | -14.6% | 0.30 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $794,305 | -15.1% | 0.28 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$6,062/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $3,453 · peaks at $4,111 in Mar
Annual avg 66% · peaks at 79% in Jul
−$2,330/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$200,303
Return on cash:3.3%
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
Your DSCR is 0.32 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
6.1%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.4×
total proceeds vs. $200,303 invested
Projected value at exit
$881,528
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+5.6 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $177,937 | $34,535 | $35,167 | $247,639 |
| Year 2 | $183,580 | $70,797 | $7,833 | $262,209 |
| Year 3 | $189,630 | $108,872 | -$18,871 | $279,631 |
| Year 4 | $196,118 | $148,850 | -$44,934 | $300,034 |
| Year 5 | $203,075 | $190,828 | -$70,348 | $323,555 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Davenport agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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