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135 Twin Lakes Ln, Mammoth Lakes, CA, USA
Cash-flow positive, but the margin over debt service is thin.
Investment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$121,885
$10,157/mo · at 56% occupancy & $670/night
$4,003
$334/mo after costs & mortgage
Cap rate
6.4%
Cash-on-cash
1.3%
DSCR
1.06
Confidence
Your assumptions
Revenue
$121,885/yr
Market avg: $121,885/yr · 56% occ · $670 ADR
Financing
$66,009/yr
Operating costs
$51,873/yr
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set · 50 properties
$447–$890
Median $672
25%–81%
Median 56%
$56.2K–$225.1K
Median $114.2K
244–365
Median 332
This property · $121.9K
Comparable properties (50)
Cash flow potential Medium · Appreciation potential Medium
365 days available · 260 days booked ·
365 days available · 240 days booked ·
365 days available · 235 days booked ·
365 days available · 249 days booked ·
365 days available · 269 days booked ·
365 days available · 236 days booked ·
365 days available · 240 days booked ·
365 days available · 215 days booked ·
365 days available · 277 days booked ·
324 days available · 220 days booked ·
352 days available · 208 days booked ·
330 days available · 212 days booked ·
352 days available · 237 days booked ·
360 days available · 218 days booked ·
353 days available · 190 days booked ·
365 days available · 256 days booked ·
310 days available · 180 days booked ·
353 days available · 211 days booked ·
338 days available · 208 days booked ·
365 days available · 179 days booked ·
254 days available · 155 days booked ·
320 days available · 196 days booked ·
327 days available · 190 days booked ·
271 days available · 206 days booked ·
365 days available · 192 days booked ·
345 days available · 168 days booked ·
350 days available · 180 days booked ·
330 days available · 162 days booked ·
358 days available · 177 days booked ·
365 days available · 143 days booked ·
275 days available · 180 days booked ·
290 days available · 126 days booked ·
291 days available · 103 days booked ·
253 days available · 118 days booked ·
268 days available · 116 days booked ·
334 days available · 158 days booked ·
365 days available · 180 days booked ·
315 days available · 123 days booked ·
267 days available · 100 days booked ·
266 days available · 128 days booked ·
342 days available · 93 days booked ·
297 days available · 139 days booked ·
268 days available · 104 days booked ·
328 days available · 167 days booked ·
292 days available · 91 days booked ·
325 days available · 115 days booked ·
244 days available · 83 days booked ·
302 days available · 75 days booked ·
266 days available · 83 days booked ·
252 days available · 82 days booked ·
Revenue and occupancy reflect Chalet's modeled estimates from observed booking activity for comparable active listings. Individual results vary with management, seasonality, and pricing.
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$272.3K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage removes the debt-coverage problem entirely, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year write-off. At roughly 25% of purchase price, the shield is substantial enough to carry the deal on its own.
Price-disciplined buyer
$1.2M
Break-even purchase price
The deal already breaks even at or above the Zestimate, so you don't need a discount to make the math work. Buy at asking and the numbers still hold — rare enough in Mammoth Lakes to be worth moving on.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
1.06
DSCR at asking
The property covers its debt service at asking but sits below the 1.20 most lenders want to see, so expect a larger down payment or a rate buy-down to get it financed. There's no margin for a soft season.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$272.3K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $226.0K–$310.4K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $83.6K–$114.9K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash +1.3%, DSCR 1.06, cash flow $4,003/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $826,800 | 8.7% | 1.41 | Positive |
| -22% | $859,872 | 7.6% | 1.36 | Positive |
| -15% | $937,040 | 5.3% | 1.25 | Positive |
| -8% | $1,014,208 | 3.3% | 1.15 | Positive |
| Asking | $1,102,400 | 1.3% | 1.06 | Positive |
| +8% | $1,190,592 | -0.4% | 0.98 | At break-even |
| +15% | $1,267,760 | -1.7% | 0.92 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
$1,169,258
~-6% under Zestimate. Where this property reaches 1.0 DSCR and neutral cash flow.
Discount needed
−$66,858
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$9,675/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Annual avg $10,157 · peaks at $14,168 in Jan
Annual avg 53% · peaks at 64% in Feb
$334/mo after all expenses
Cash to close
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
$319,696
Return on cash:18.5%
You qualify for STR financing
Your DSCR is 1.06 · lenders typically require 1.0+.
Get matched with 2–3 vetted STR lenders, free.
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
20.4%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
2.1×
total proceeds vs. $319,696 invested
Projected value at exit
$1,406,973
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+7.3 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $283,999 | $55,120 | $104,751 | $443,870 |
| Year 2 | $293,005 | $112,996 | $110,583 | $516,583 |
| Year 3 | $302,661 | $173,766 | $118,270 | $594,697 |
| Year 4 | $313,016 | $237,574 | $127,840 | $678,431 |
| Year 5 | $324,120 | $304,573 | $139,322 | $768,015 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Mammoth Lakes agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
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Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer. This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
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