All Real Estate Services are offered through Chalet Realty (DBA of Mahalla Realty LLC).
Texas Real Estate Commission Consumer Protection NoticeTexas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage ServicesTREC DisclaimerChalet (“GetChalet Inc.”) provides general educational content and tools for real-estate investors. Chalet is not a law firm, CPA firm, or investment adviser, and does not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. Nothing on this site creates a CPA-client, attorney-client, or fiduciary relationship. Tax laws change, and state rules may differ from federal rules (e.g., California decouples from federal bonus depreciation). Always consult your own qualified tax and legal professionals about your specific situation.
The term 'Airbnb' is used on our site in a colloquial sense, akin to saying 'I am going to Airbnb it.' This usage is intended to refer broadly to the concept of short-term rentals and not specifically to the Airbnb platform or services. Airbnb, Inc. is not affiliated with Chalet, nor does it endorse or sponsor our services. We use the term in this generalized manner to easily convey the idea of participating in short-term rental activities, recognizing 'Airbnb' as a term familiar to many in this context.
Affiliate & Referral Disclosure. Chalet may receive referral fees or other consideration when you engage with featured agents, lenders, cost-seg providers, or other partners referenced on this site. These relationships may influence which partners we present. We follow the FTC Endorsement Guides and aim to disclose material connections clearly and conspicuously.
Chalet (DBA of GetChalet Inc.) is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Airbnb, Airbnb.com, or any of its subsidiaries or its affiliates. The official Airbnb website can be found at http://www.airbnb.com. The name "Airbnb" as well as related names, marks, emblems and images are registered trademarks of Airbnb, Inc.
1131 W California Ave, Mill Valley, CA 94941, USA
Airbnb investment analysis
3 beds·2 baths·8 guests
Local STR STR agent
This deal is cash-flow negative
A local agent can surface better STR-friendly properties nearby — or validate this one with on-the-ground data.
Connect with an STR RealtorInvestment potential
Your scenario · adjust the levers below or open advanced settings to see how returns change
$62,671
$5,223/mo
Projected gross rental income at your assumed occupancy rate and nightly rate. Net of cleaning fees.
−$109,563
−$9,130/mo
After operating costs and mortgage.
Cap rate
-0.2%
Cash-on-cash
-6.2%
NOI
-$3,334
Revenue
$62,671/yr
Market avg: $62,671/yr · 82% occ · $298 ADR
Financing
$106,228/yr
Operating costs
$66,005/yr
Who this property is for
The same property is a great buy for one investor and a trap for another. Here's the honest read.
1031 / high-equity buyer
~$438.2K
Year-1 tax shield
Buying with cash or low leverage neutralizes the debt-coverage problem, so the thesis rests on appreciation plus a large first-year depreciation write-off. For a 1031 or high-equity buyer, the tax shield and long-term upside outweigh thin cash flow.
Price-disciplined buyer
—
Break-even purchase price
Even a deep discount doesn't get this deal to break even within a realistic range, so there's no price anchor to negotiate toward here. A price-disciplined buyer should pass unless the revenue assumptions change.
DSCR cash-flow buyer
-0.03
DSCR at asking
At asking price the property doesn't qualify for DSCR financing or pay for itself. If you need cash flow from day one, look at a mid-term-rental fallback or a different Mill Valley submarket.
For a buyer who materially participates and qualifies for the STR tax treatment.
$438.2K
Estimated first-year deduction · range $363.7K–$499.6K
Why this matters here
At a marginal bracket, this deduction can be worth $134.6K–$184.8K in estimated federal tax saved.
This only applies if you meet the IRS material-participation tests for short-term rentals and are not using a full-service property manager.
Estimate, subject to CPA review. Cost-segregation percentages shown here are illustrative and depend on an actual study of the property.
California does not conform to federal bonus depreciation, so your state tax treatment will differ from the federal figures above.
Chalet can introduce a cost-segregation partner — this is not tax, legal, or financial advice.
How cash-on-cash return moves with purchase price. The marked line is break-even (1.0 DSCR).
At this price: cash-on-cash -4.9%, DSCR -0.03, cash flow -$109,563/yr
| Price vs asking | Price | Cash-on-cash | DSCR | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -25% | $1,330,575 | -4.9% | -0.04 | Below break-even |
| -22% | $1,383,798 | -4.9% | -0.04 | Below break-even |
| -15% | $1,507,985 | -4.9% | -0.04 | Below break-even |
| -8% | $1,632,172 | -4.9% | -0.03 | Below break-even |
| Asking | $1,774,100 | -4.9% | -0.03 | Below break-even |
| +8% | $1,916,028 | -4.9% | -0.03 | Below break-even |
| +15% | $2,040,215 | -4.9% | -0.03 | Below break-even |
Break-even price
Out of range
This deal does not reach break-even within ±25% of asking.
Discount needed
—
The gap between asking and the price a cash-flow buyer can underwrite.
If refi to 5.5% in 24 mo
+$15,570/yr
Illustrative cash-flow improvement at asking price if rates fall. Planning figure, not a forecast.
Before mortgage · -5% margin
Cash to close
$514,489
Down payment, closing costs, and furnishing
DSCR below 1.0 — but you can still qualify
STR-friendly lenders often use gross revenue to qualify — even below 1.0 DSCR. Get matched with 2–3 vetted lenders, free.
DSCR ratio
-0.03
How this property compares to similar short-term rentals nearby.
Comparable set
· 10 properties$192–$322
50%–100%
$41,388–$107,999
210–391
Comparable properties (10)
What the deal returns over the hold — including the tax shield, which is the whole point for an appreciation buyer.
Levered IRR
-0.5%
over 5-yr hold, with tax shield
Equity multiple
1.0×
total proceeds vs. $514,489 invested
Projected value at exit
$2,264,251
year 5 · 5.0% annual appreciation
Tax shield contribution
+4.8 pts
of IRR comes from year-1 depreciation
| Year | Equity | Appreciation | Cumulative cash flow | Total value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $457,041 | $88,705 | $52,572 | $598,318 |
| Year 2 | $471,534 | $181,845 | -$56,051 | $597,329 |
| Year 3 | $487,075 | $279,643 | -$163,720 | $602,998 |
| Year 4 | $503,740 | $382,330 | -$270,420 | $615,649 |
| Year 5 | $521,609 | $490,151 | -$376,137 | $635,622 |
Projection, not a promise.
Assumes 5.0% annual appreciation, 1.5% rent growth (operating costs held flat), and that the property qualifies for short-term-rental tax treatment. The year-1 depreciation shield depends on a real cost-segregation study and your tax situation — consult a CPA.
Appreciation is the dominant driver of this return. When cash flow is negative, the deal depends on the property gaining value — it is not paying for itself from income.
Appreciation, rent growth, and financing rates are editable under Edit financials.
STR deals turn on local rules and demand that a generalist agent misses. Chalet matches you with a vetted Mill Valley agent who knows which properties actually cash flow — and which to avoid.
© 2026 Chalet. All rights reserved.
This analysis is generated by Chalet's Airbnb Calculator
Visit getchalet.com for more tools
Real Estate Investment Analysis & Market Insights
Disclaimer
This page and the data presented are for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.